The courts still have a lot (a LOT) to decide about the business and political decisions that were made by Ex. President Donald Trump. However, the courts have already determined that Trump’s business practices crossed the line, drifting from questionable creative accounting to outright fraud. Still. For the moment, let’s put aside the political implications of whether America will put a criminal back into the Whitehouse. Instead, let’s consider the financial implications of Trump’s business crimes, how often he is emulated, and how this impacts America’s business practices.
For the last 7 years, Donald Trump has not been closely aligned with objective reality. Rather, his definition of truth depends on what he wants and what is in his way. We’re all subject to a certain amount of flexibility in our moral compass. But Trump often displays the “flexibility” of a 3-year-old who is denied an ice cream cone. Sure, mom told you that you can have that ice cream after you clean up your room. But when you fail to tidy up, you only remember the promise of ice cream. Any argument that can bring you closer to your goal of creamy, delicious, ice cream is the only argument that counts.
Trump has been called a BabyMan, who wants his way and throws tantrums. Perhaps. But more importantly, is he the only billionaire BabyMan? Is he the only billionaire who will do anything, commit any crime, to get his way?
According to a joint study from MIT, UC Berkeley, and the University of Ontario about 10% of major corporations commit stock fraud every year. Real Estate fraud is rising (up 12% recently). Of course, this is just what is discovered and brought to trial.
Consider the tale of a particular BabyMan. This Billion-dollar New York Real estate agent was renowned for his BabyMan antics. He was particularly angry when his brother-in-law truthfully testified in court about illegal manipulation of property values and other crimes. This BabyMan threw a tantrum and hired a prostitute to entrap his brother-in-law, and sent the evidence to his brother-in-law’s wife (his sister). He wanted to force this disloyal family member into a divorce. He never cared how his sister and her children would suffer.
A few of you might think, “You’re talking about Donald Trump… right?” No. I’m not. I’m talking about Charles Kushner, the father of Jared Kushner, Donald Trump’s son-in-law. Before leaving office as President, Trump pardoned his in-law’s crimes. After all, BabyMen need to stick together!
Between the wall of lawyers the wealthy hire, and the political connections they buy, it’s very difficult to prosecute One-Percenters for their crimes. What’s even more difficult is to get them to pay their fair share of taxes every year.
Which brings us back to the IRS. They have been telling America for years that they need more resources in order to get the rich to pay what they owe. Naturally, the friends of the rich in Washington continually deny the IRS these resources, in order to protect their patrons. Ironically, the same senators and congressmen who prevent the IRS from collecting taxes scream the loudest about cutting services to the poor, because taxes don’t cover expenses.
What is the IRS proposal? It’s pretty simple really. Most of the “red flags” for income tax returns are focused on people who have little if any money to pay the IRS. The wealthy have lawyers, trust funds, offshore accounts, and tax loopholes to avoid paying their taxes (and these are just the legal options they have). The IRS proposal is to spend more time reviewing the tax returns that are likely to yield unpaid taxes.
For example, a 2021 White House study found that the average American pays around 13% of their income in taxes, but the 25 wealthiest Americans paid a mere 3.4%. Just 25 more audits could yield billions in unpaid taxes. If America’s wealthiest paid the average rate, tax revenues would rise by $52 billion. That’s just individuals. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) found that 20% of America’s largest corporations paid… nothing. Year after year of “nothing” can really add up!
A reporter once asked the famous Depression-era bank robber Willie Sutton, “Willie… why do you rob banks?” Willie’s answer was breathtakingly obvious. “Because that’s where they keep the money.” Perhaps America should take Willie’s advice, and have the IRS focus on the tax returns that will yield the greatest results.
What do you think? No one likes to be taxed, but if the only certainty in life is death and taxes. We might live to be 100, or we might get run over by an ice cream truck tomorrow morning. We may not be able to control when we die, but shouldn’t we be able to guarantee that every American pays their fair share of taxes?
America’s cannabis revolution has been… confusing. For thousands of years, cannabis was a mainstream medicine. In the early 20th century, cannabis was approved by the AMA. Every medical textbook had sections on the use of cannabis and every medical college taught doctors the medical uses of cannabis. But in the early 20th century, America decided to tighten up what we were consuming. In 1906 the Food and Drug Administration was forced. Many dangerous and questionable drugs were regulated or banned. In the 1920s the sale of alcohol was banned. In the 1930s, cannabis became illegal. While alcohol regained its legal status in just 14 years it would take nearly a century for cannabis to once again be legal. Well, sort of legal. Which is the topic of today’s blog.
In just a few years we’ve gone from cannabis as an addictive drug to a natural and safe cure for just about everything. Glaucoma, depression, insomnia, epilepsy, PTSD, eating disorders, and relief from the side effects of cancer treatments. It’s all possible with cannabis. In fact, the biggest source of drug deaths in America comes from the big pharmaceutical companies.
The rapid transformation of cannabis from demon to deliverer is seen by the government as an opportunity to fix multiple problems. Legal, but regulated, cannabis would drive away street drug dealers. Cities could collect increased taxes from legitimate cannabis sales. And tax revenues would provide funds for low-income housing and services for the poor. New cannabis-related taxes in New York City alone are expected to generate $500 million a year. It would be a win-win for everyone!
Except… and there is always an “except”… the cannabis market has evolved faster than government legislation. New York City has only licensed about 50 fully legal cannabis stores (dispensaries). Yet, the city has counted over 1,500 “convenience stores” that do not pay the taxes a dispensary would. The state recently announced a crackdown on illegal stores and an expansion of legal dispensaries to fill the gap. If NY could thread the needle between padlocking some stores while opening other stores, New York did not understand the resources needed to regulate hundreds (thousands?) of these stores.
Cannabis plants contain over 100 cannabinoids, chemical compounds with medical and other uses. THC and CBD are by far the most common cannabinoids. But they are not the only cannabinoids. THC and CBD are better thought of as families of chemicals. “THC” (now called Delta 9) has “cousins”, Delta 8 and Delta 10. They are VERY similar to Delta 9 but are produced in such minuscule quantities that regulators ignore them. However, today’s cannabis industry has techniques to convert Delta 9 into these and other compounds. Delta 8 and Dela 10 lie in a legal gray area, and dispensary taxes are rarely collected.
Even if Delta 8 and 10 were fully legal, the FDA does not test cannabis. Many “THC Free” products do contain a significant amount of THC. Likewise, completely legal “pure CBD” oil may not contain any CBD. Intentional deception or just very badly made products? Whatever the case, will NY need to inspect every product… or is this just another reason to wipe out all of the “convenience” stores? Whatever they choose, New York City and New York State tell us they are about to start their crackdown.
What do you think? Is a cannabis crackdown too radical? Do we need more regulation or more drugs? Let’s hear your opinion!
The name has changed, but the questions about who owns “Israel” have been a cause of conflict and bloodshed since God promised the land to Moses 4,000 years ago. “To your descendants, I give this land, from the Wadi of Egypt to the great river, the Euphrates – the land of the Kenites, Kenizzites, Kadmonites, Hittites, Perizzites, Rephaites, Amorites, Canaanites, Girgashites and Jebusites. (Genesis 15:18–21). If this was a “deed” for the land, no one told the “tenants”. Information about these ancient tribes and the boundaries of their land is sketchy. Even the Euphrates River, the main boundary of the Promised Land, has moved over the last 4,000 years.
Abraham’s descendants moved to Egypt. Eventually, Moses became the leader of the Hebrews. He led them out of Egypt and back to the Promised Land through a long and complicated journey, wandering around the desert for 40 years, fighting wars along the way, and finally reaching the Promised Land. Where God told the Hebrews to kill or enslave the current inhabitants. (There’s a lot of that in the Bible.) The Hebrews built a kingdom, fought more wars with neighbors, lost their religion, regained their religion, lost a war with the Babylonians, left the promised land, and returned back home… just in time to become a vassal of Rome. Which takes us to the year 0, and Jesus.
You’ve heard of Jesus? I’ll skip his history and just remind you that this is the second native religion (Christianity) in Israel. Meanwhile, the Hebrews (now generally called Jews) were unhappy with Roman rule and rebelled. They lost the First and Second Jewish Wars, but won the Third Jewish War and kicked the Romans out of Jerusalem. Rome was used to fighting rebels, but it wasn’t used to losing. Rome returned with overwhelming force and crushed the rebels. In the aftermath, half of the Jews in the world were killed, and Jews were expelled from Jerusalem. This “Dysphoria” left Jews without a homeland for the next two millennia.
The Roman Empire (at least the Western half) collapsed by the 5th century. Mohammad was born in the 6th century, (creating the third native religion, Islam). For 15 centuries empires rose and empires fell, there were Crusades, Silk Road caravans became the main form of international trade, and endless wars raged across what would become Palestine. And the Jews? They suffered centuries of discrimination, genocide, and oppression culminating in the Pogroms of Russia and the Death Camps of Nazi Germany.
At the end of the 19th Century, Europe was awash in Nationalism. Dutchys, city-states, obscure empires, and tiny kingdoms were being reimagined as Nations. Jews were increasingly written out of “official” European history. After a thousand years, Jews remained foreigners and were easy scapegoats for any political problem. It was clear to Jews that they would never be accepted (or safe) in Europe. The solution? Create a political movement, the Zionist movement.
The Zion movement’s goal was to return Jews to the land promised to them by God. The Bible said that even the Hebrew slaves in Egypt could make it to the Promised Land. The Babylonians took the Jews out of Isreal and moved them to Babylon, yet they returned one more to the Promised Land. And for the last 2,000 years, Passover prayers concluded with, “Next year in Jerusalem”. Surely, now was the time for Jews to return!
Jews organized and raised money to buy land from the Ottoman Empire (the legal owners of Palestine). Later they found that strangers had lived on the land as slaves (or serfs) for centuries. These “Palestinians” had nowhere to go. Ironically, many “returning” Jews came from Russia, where they had been forced to move when the Czar confiscated Jewish lands. The Ottoman Empire collapsed soon after, and Palestine fell to the British. After WWII Jews fleeing from the atrocities in Europe began an uncoordinated return to Jerusalem. As refugee ships from around the world headed to Israel, the Middle East was thrown into crisis.
The crisis became a war, which Israel won, becoming a state in 1948. The succession of wars that followed read like the lineages of the Bible… the war of succession begat the Suez crisis, which begat the 6-day war, which begat the war of attrition, which begat the Yom Kippur war, which begat the Lebanon war, which begat the 15 year-long Lebanon conflict, which begat another Lebennon war, which begat the 2008 Gaza war, which begat the 2012 Gaza war, which begat the 2014 Gaza war, which begat… well, you get the idea. In addition to full-out wars, Israel had an endless succession of uprisings, crises, and external wars that spilled into Israel. Hardly a year goes by without someone spilling blood.
Israel returned all of the land it won in wars, except for… Golan in the North, the West Bank, and Gaza in the East. Israel has ignored UN Resolutions and maintained control of these “occupation zones”. Why? Because these are the three most frequently used paths to invade Israel. In the past, Israel had reluctantly agreed to surrender parts of these territories, but new invasions, uprisings, or the arrival of Jewish settlers (legally and illegally) led to new conflicts and reset the clock on Israel leaving.
And now, we have the Israeli/Palestinian War of 2023. Or the Fourth Gaza War. Or whatever history will call it. There are reasons why Hamas, one of the best armed Palestinian groups, chose to attack on October 7th, 2023. There are always reasons. It was the biggest attack on Israel in the 21st century, and it was successful beyond anyone’s expectations. Especially the Israeli military. Which means that Israel will have the biggest retaliation of the 21st Century. Israel’s government said that time it will be different. I believe them.
It’s hard to say how hard Israel will hit back after the attack from Hamas, but they don’t intend to leave Hamas with the ability to retaliate for a long, long time. Even with the best intelligence and the most precise weapons, we can expect very high civilian casualties. After the killing or kidnapping of over 100 foreign tourists, Palestinian citizens will receive little support from the global community. Soon other Palestinian and foreign adversaries of Israel will make aggressive moves, and the Israeli response will grow ever larger.
Hamas claims to have fired 5,000 rockets into Israel, with thousands more in reserve. Until all rockets and factories are destroyed, all decision makers for the attack are eliminated, and most fights are killed or captured, the fighting is likely to continue. Gwynne Dyer, the Dutch journalist and author of the book, “War”, once said “History is not peace followed by war, but war briefly interrupted by periods of peace. The history of Israel and the Middle East certainly proves Dwyer to be correct.
What do you think? Will this be just another bloody (bloodiest?) Israeli/Palestinian conflict? Or do you see something different? Tell us your opinion.
The year has passed swiftly, and the Holiday Season is just around the corner! What will be this year’s hottest toy? Something Star Wars? Legos and Crayolas are always good stocking stuffers. Anything Barbie is definitely on the list after the HUGE success of the Barbie movie (or should I say… the first Barbie movie?). But will anything this season match the explosive success of Tickle Me Elmo in 1996? With the half-million first-round Elmos sold long before Christmas, Parents beat up other Parents to get the last Elmo in stock, counterfeit Elmos flooded the market, and classified ads that looked more like hostage notes offered a possibly honest-to-goodness Elmo for just 10 times the retail price.
This year’s hot item just might squeeze Elmo out of the record books. But it’s not just one toy. It is a whole new category of toys. Toys with… Artificial Intelligence. Just about every toymaker is making an AI for Christmas, and quite a few new toymakers will exclusively focus on a Plastic Pal who is fun to be with! AI will be everywhere this year. Did I just hear a collective sigh of exhaustion from some parents?
OK, OK I get it! It’s been a bit… ahhh… challenging to deal with your child’s Internet habit. Minecraft, strange Tik-Toks that you don’t understand, group battles on Fortnite… hmmm… I kind of miss when limiting Facebook time was the biggest teen/parent fight. Anyway, this isn’t the same. Unlike all of the demonic influencers on the Internet, you PAY to buy an Internet Toy and then you pay for service. YOU are the customer, and they don’t want to lose the $100 to $1,000 that you pay for the toy.
Now, with the right subscription, you will be the one tirelessly whispering into your child’s ear. We can expect all sorts of add-ons… tutoring support, keeping an eye on your child’s interest, emotional support when you’re not around. Of course, some parents may want strict barriers to what the child is told. Sex education, politics, religious views. The high-end of this market there will definitely be room for a lucrative business in developing “premium information filters” and custom programming for the…. discerning parent?.
American culture wars aside, parents have been dealing with the issues of technology and childhood for the last century. Way back, parents distrusted phonograph and radio. Too many foreign ideas and strange music. It got worse when Television became the one-eyed babysitter. And then, we had computers, the Internet, and smart phones in fast succession. Now AI.
The big question is what kind of AI are we going to get in a decade or two? Will it be the always-loving and comforting Teddy Bear from the movie “A.I. Artificial Intelligence”? Or should we expect the title character from “Megan”, an obsessive toy that will do anything to be your best friend? Or maybe we’ll get both. What do you think? How will parenting adapt to this new world?
Israel’s High-Tech defense weapons just became obsolete. Expect more anti-swarm weapons… soon.
Once again, the Middle East is at war. Hamas attacked, Israel responded, and months (if not years) of retaliations are ahead. This back-and-forth fighting with Hamas has become a well-choreographed dance. Hamas leads with expendible soldiers and low-tech rockets. Israel follows with a swift, high-tech response. It looks a lot like their last dance, with perhaps a bit more professional coaching. When the dance is over, both sides take a bow and swear revenge. Not too long after, the dance begins again
According to both the Palestinians and the Israelis smaller aggressions have occured over the last couple of year, on both sides, but are ignored or underreported by the Western press. Both sides can claim provocations that have caused escalation into a full war. Both sides also claim that the other side has repeatedly used real and imagined incidents in previous escalations.
This conflict has a long and bloody history with each side alternately playing the hero, the villain, and the victim. Hamas identifies itself as freedom fighters who are liberating their home from an an oppresive occupying power. Justified by the day-to-day indignities of second-class citizenship in an occupied land, Hamas feels justified in spilling as much blood as needed and has repeatedly pledged itself to the destruction of Israel.
Isreal was born as the homeland of the Jews after fleeing from the Nazi death camps of WWII. They identify as an underdog who miraculously survived the Holocaust, heroically struggled against powerful neighboring nations, and finally returned to their ancestral home. Israel has endured terrorist attacks from Hamas since it’s creation in 1987, and similar attacks by Hamas’ predecessor (the PLO) since it was created in 1964.
Both sides have believe that God personally gave this land to them and them alone. That beleif has been cemented in place with the spilled blood of all parties across two different centuries. When all parties are justified by God and Blood, that’s pretty much the definition of an intractable conflict. However, Israel has said that this time will be different. And I believe them.
The choices that Hamas made in starting this particular phase of the conflict don’t make any sense to the West. If this attack was done to gain support, it failed. Perhaps Hamas’ attack was far more successful than they planned? They were certainly more successful than Israel assumed they would be.
Attacking a music festival, and killing or kidnapping over 1,000 of the 3,500 attendees was a very bad move. Virtually every nation… in Europe, across Asia, and both Russia and China… is now demanding an accounting for every dead or missing citizen. And lets remember, at a music festival everyone has a camera and is consatntly recording events. Every that happened at the festival… from before anyone ralized that those “specks” in the skies were hang-gliding terrorists until the last tourist was killed…. is now premanently documented and has ben shared around the world.
While killing more than a thousand Israeli’s can never be justified, some will say there were reaons, or look at the history. But killing 100 or more foreig tourists? This was a music condert, not a military training camp. And it wasn’t bombs, it was the individual killing… and apparently rape and other attrocities… of individually selected victims. In the end, yes, dead is dead. But there is War and then there are War Crimes. Opinions will differ, based on viewsthat were establised many years ago, but one thing is sure. Palestinian civilians can expect the fewest and weakest voices of support when Israel’s plan for revenge is in full stride.
Part of the motivation for the attack was undoubtedly the success of Ukraine in liberating territory from Russia’s occupation. If so, Hamas failed (catestrophically) to learn from Zelensky’s media-savvy leadership. Killing tourists is not how you become the world’s hero. Israel’s reaction? In the past, no matter how violent the reprisal, Israel took care to frame their actions as the need for security. Now, we hear about the need for revenge. Let’s break this down.
International Cooperation: War is expensive, in every possible way. The US and Europe are already drawing up plans to support Israel. Just a week ago, Washington was battling over how to support Ukraine. Similar political battles were occuring in Europe. These two conflicts will now compete for dollars and weapons. But there is a simple solution, especially for the US. Put together a joint bill to fund both conflicts, making most political factions ready to sign on. ESPECIALLY 3 weeks before a U.S. election.
Deep Revenge: With at least 100 tourists from around the world dead, kidnapped, or missing, no nation that matters will stand on the side of Hamas. Even China wants an accounting for its five dead or missing citizens. Nations that don’t beat the drums of war will certainly turn a blind eye to whatever happens to Palestinians. No nation will volunteer to take in any refugees until well after Israel is satisfied.
Darker Israel: Over the last 75 years Israel has become increasingly comfortable with playing an ever darker role in the conflict. It sounds like the goal is to depopulate the Ghaza strip.
Canceled Funds: On the threshold of receiving $6 billion in frozen oil revenues, expect a return to the deep freeze. Most Western nations assume that the drone swarm, that took down Israeli radar and communications was done with Iranian drones and probably technical support. Even if it is found that Iran did nothing on the day of the attack, there is such a strong connection between Iran and Hamas that unless Iran tipped off the US in advance (Hint… they didn’t) that money is off the table.
More Drones: Hamas sent a lot of soldiers, rockets, and drones into a small area and overwhelmed defenses. Swarm attacks of one kind or another have been part of war since before the time of the Roman Empire. Expect drone swarm attacks FROM Israel, drone swarm PATROLS to defend Israel, and a new generation of active PATROL-ATTACK DRONES in the air and roving the land across Gaza, 24 x 7. Fixed defenses are too easy overwhelmed, in too many ways.
No Hiding: Hamas’ strategy has been… shoot at Israel and then hide the guns and missiles by residential neighborhoods, schools, and hospitals, using civilians as human shields. Israel has advanced weapons to reduce casualties, but civilians will always pay some price. That strategy is at an end. In Ukraine, drones are operated from miles away, they fly to Russian positions, and they can drop a grenade on a single soldier. If they dopn’t already exist, expect Israel to produce large numbers (thousads) of advanced patrol drones. They will constantly partol the air and the ground around Gaza. If there are any signs of a planned or active attack, patrol drones will switth to a killing mode and attack anything their AI and facial recognition software says ight be a threat.
Kill Command: Drones are becoming more intellegent, and deadly. However, American and European drones do not (officially?) have the ability to kill without explicit human approval. A drone on a long mission that loses contact with it’s home base, it can still autonomously reach it’s target. But it cannot attack without a human being pulling a remote trigger. If Isreali drones do not given complete autonomy, expect them to get a lot closer to pulling their own triggers. The next time an attack is building, Israel won’t have a long approval process to start shooting… especially, if armed drones are already in the area.
Darker Israel: Over the last 75 years Israel has become increasingly comfortable with playing an ever darker role in the conflict. Israel’s immediate goal is to free hostages, punish Hamas, and prevent a similar attack from ever happening again. In the longer term? They will “Pacify” the Gaza Strip. Which may include capturing or killing most of Hamas, if not significantly depopulating Gaza.
Palestinian Civilians?: They’re going to suffer. A lot. While few would have joined in on the killing if they could, many see Hamas as their authentic representatives. Not all Palestinians think that these attacks are justified, but about half of those surveyed support the action of Hamas. The lack of outrage at Hamas by the average Palestinian is not going to be well recieved in the coming weeks. And is going to justify the lack of outrage by previously sympathetic Isrealis. With so much blood already spilled, voices that might matter, that might call for peace, will not little to say.
It’s not a pretty picture, and it’s not likely to get worse before it gets better. Still, there may be a shred of hope. For the last 20 years an Arab Peace Initiative has been making the rounds, and was signed by every Arab nation in the Middle East. But Israel and the US have not endorsed the initiative. More recently, the Crown Prince of Suadi Arabia has personal asking world leaders to consider an alternative… normalization. If Isreal and the rest of the nations in the area can have normal diplomatic relations, then… perhaps an Israel that is not continually threatened by its neighbors just might be willing to deal with problems inside it’s borders. It’s not much, but it might be a start of future negotiations.
What do you think? What do you see as the future of the Middle East? If true peace is not possible, do you thing that eveyone live together with a minimum of violence?
“Pump and Dump” is a well-known and highly illegal form of stock manipulation where companies collude to buy large amounts of stock to “pump up” the price. Seeing rising stock prices, uninformed investors buy the targeted stock. When the price peaks, the scammers dump the stock and profit from the inflated stock price. Everyone else loses money as the stock crashes.
Trump is on trial for a real estate version of Pump and Dump. Rather than profiting from selling inflated real estate, Trump inflated the price of property to get inflated loans. Trump increased the valuation of his properties without any supporting proof, highlighting the ease with which a powerful real estate company can illegally inflate property values. This is why there are severe penalties for misrepresenting the value of property.
What about genuine differences in opinions? Two real estate companies might provide two different valuations for the same property, but there are limits to how much they should differ. For the sake of argument, if the difference between the low and the high estimate is 10 times as much, one of the two estimates are questionable. Some sort of self-interest would be suspected.
But a criminal act is more than mere incompetence. You need to ask, “Is the difference due to intentionally misleading an investor?” How can you be sure about someone’s intentions? Is there documentation that other parties were given a very different valuation? This is what Trump did, using one set of numbers for banks and another set of numbers for his taxes. Let’s examine the details of Maralago, the property being examined by the court.
In 1985, Trump paid $5 million for the house and property, plus another $5 million for furnishings. If the valuation included all furnishings, that’s $10 million. 40 years later the property would have appreciated. What is it now worth? A local newspaper reported, “From 2011-2021, the Palm Beach County Assessor appraised the market value of Mar-a-Lago at between $18 million and $27.6 million… (on his tax forms) Trump ‘agrees’ his club should be valued at only $26.6 million.”
Yet, Trump violently disagrees with his own tax valuation. The Daily Beast reported, “The judge noted Trump valued Mar-a-Lago at between $426.5 million and $612 million (in bank loan documents).” Inflating the value by 20-30 times is not a minor difference of opinion (between Trump and… Trump?). And this happened over several years, making it much more difficult to dismiss as a mere accident.
Recently Trump stated that Maralago may be worth $1.5 to $1.8 billion. His latest valuations may or may not admissible evidence for the court. Still, Trump should hope that the IRS isn’t listening.
Trump’s defense team has claimed that Maralago is worth more than another Florida property… The Manalapan. The Manalapan’s property has twice the acreage of Maralago, with the main house being double the square footage of Maralago. Yet this property sold for $179 million, a quarter of Trump’s valuation for Maralago.
While Trump’s financial and political representation are many, the real focus of this article is not Trump. Trump did not invent the Pump and Dump. It was probably invented by the Romans, once tax collecting became a bit too efficient for local landlords. Our real focus is everyone in Trump’s tax bracket, which appears to be the “zero tax” bracket. What if all ultra-rich participate in similar schemes? Is this why we have a budget deficit? Do we need to more aggressively audit the rich to see if Trump is just typical of most rich Americans?
The super-rich hates paying taxes so much that they hire private armies of lawyers and accountants. Accountants to ignore taxes, and lawyers if they get caught. A 2021 White House study found that the average American pays around 13%, but the 25 wealthiest Americans paid a mere 3.4%. If America’s wealthiest paid the average rate, tax revenues would rise by $52 billion. And that’s just individuals. The Governement Accounting Office (GAO) found that 20% of America’s largest corporations paid… nothing.
Exposing Trump’s financial misdeeds may drive some critical tax reforms. It should certainly make us consider if our tax system treats all citizens fairly. For years the IRS has been telling us that they need staff to audit more people, especially rich people. And they need to shift from auditing the poor and middle-class, to the ultra-wealthy because they have far more opportunities to hide their income.
What do you think? Is the tax system fair? Has the Trump trial made you question if the rich pay their fair share? Let us know!
In the early 20th century America built big. America was becoming the biggest economy in the world, and New York City was the most prosperous city in America. The biggest of the big buildings were going up in NYC. Starting with the Flatiron building in 1902. Its steel framework allowed it to be built taller, and at 285 feet tall it was the world’s first skyscraper. That was the start of a global competition to build ever higher. That race is still going on, but the biggest buildings in the world today are being built in Asia and the Middle East. Things have changed.
During the last half of the 20th century, the economies of many countries rapidly developed. Nothing says a nation is a global player like a super-tall building. Most of the world’s super-tall buildings are in Asia and the Middle East. Super steel and the latest concrete made it possible to build the Burj Khalifa in Dubai is twice as tall as New York’s Empire State Building.
Then, 9/11 happened. America’s super-tall buildings took a time-out. But once again more demand than supply led to pressure to build more commercial real estate. And COVID hit. The resulting questions about working from home, or even working from home in a different state, brought up all sorts of questions about the future of commercial real estate and the downtowns of big cities.
Workers rebelled against old work assumptions, demanding more pay, more respect, and choices about where they work. But if workers don’t return to their old offices, what happens to America’s 100 Billion square feet of commercial space? If vacancy rates continue to rise, will corporations cancel leases? When real estate developers lose money banks don’t get paid, and we could see a new banking crisis.
Is a new crisis on the way? Or is this all overblown? We need to remember that remote workers are just now being told to return to work. Depending on the source, 25% to 40% of commercial space was vacated due to remote work. Yet, a recent survey of 1,000 employers found that 90% will require workers to return to the office by early 2024. If true, vacancy rates are about to shrink dramatically.
Also, it’s unclear how many remote workers want to continue to work remotely. Young, single workers need exposure to more experienced workers to learn their jobs. And face-time with senior managers is critical in being assigned sought-after projects and promotions. You don’t get points for working late if your boss doesn’t see you working! More established workers, especially those with children, may want to exchange their daily commute time for more family time. A remote worker might move to a state with lower-cost-of-living so they can buy a house.
Still, the combination of adding more commercial space via super-tall buildings while existing commercial buildings are less than full could lead to falling prices. Given that new buildings will undoubtedly have better amenities and probably a more desirable address, older commercial buildings will disproportionately suffer. If only there was some way to repurpose less desirable office buildings. Oh, wait, there is!
New York City, and most American cities, suffer from a chronic shortage of housing. Especially affordable housing. Not all of the tens of thousands of commercial buildings in NYC can be effectively converted to residential. However, smaller and older commercial buildings are the best fit due to cost and design. These are also the least useful and least valuable buildings in the current market. Converting as many of them as possible to a new life as residential buildings just makes sense.
Of course, it’s more than just a matter of pure economics. Cities need to think about the whole of their downtowns, all of their commercial space. Citizens have been uncomfortable about giving super buildings free rein. If new buildings or new real estate trends change where workers and residents are located, will new bus lines and train stations be needed? What about additional water and power lines where populations for growing neighborhoods. And, perhaps most important of all, outdated regulations that define what can and cannot be built.
Regardless of the constraints, NYC and other big cities are building new, bigger, super-buildings. New tenants are moving in. If all works out, downtowns will expand, city property revenues and mortgage payments will continue to flow, new residential buildings will be built, and some remote workers will continue to work from where they want to work.
What do you think? Will buildings continue to build upwards? Will super-tall buildings dominate commercial space? Or is 1,000 feet high (or so) good enough? Let us what you think the next decade will look like… readers want to know!
No, that’s not Morgan Freeman… but it is why Hollywood is terrified!
The strike is over, but the struggle is just beginning. Unlike the Auto Workers Union, it is MUCH more difficult to draw a line from a labor contract to what an individual members of the Writer’s Guild of America is paid. Just the use of “Union” vs. “Guild” tells you that these two groups have a different relationship to their work. One is a group of manual laborers, and one represents artists. Artists who want to continue to control their rights over a product, even after the product is sold.
Artists tend to have more rights than “workers”. Just like other artists, WGA members want higher pay if their work (say, a movie) generates more revenue. Sequels or a translation into another format (a book or a cartoon), might lead to more payments, or certainly more negotiations. Whether you will get what you ask for depends on seniority, the track record of your previous work, and what other writers get paid for. The new contract helps writers get a little more than they had before.
More than negotiating for new rights, the strike was about not losing existing rights… to AIs. Sure, we’ve all heard about the coming wave of Artificial Intelligence. These software systems can learn (this is what machine learning means). Then the AI can imitate what they have learned. An AI can write, draw in any style, or create the words and music for a new song. One AI can draw an oil painting of a bluebird in the style of Piccaso. Or it can read a script aloud, in the voice of your choice. Not impressed?
Sir David Attenborough is one of the best-known narrators of nature documentaries. Search YouTube and you will find endless works narrated by the highly recognizable voice of Attenborough. However, some videos are narrated by an AI. Consider the Morgan Freeman image above. It is not Morgan Freeman. Instead, it is a “deep fake”, a mere imitation of the original,. An AI created this visual and vocal doppelganger. In just a few years we could have movies that are written, acted, voiced, and edited by AIs. Early attempts will probably be less than Oscar-worthy. Still, few movies, broadcast series, or streaming content have ever been high art. What matters for the screenwriters’ strike is that Hollywood can turn out most of their content with less human labor, and (soon?) with virtually no union workers.
For the moment let’s forget movies or series that have hundreds of millions of dollars to play with. Instead, consider the average project that Netflix makes. Like a series from Korea or an Anime from Japan. Notice how many Netflix choices are from Asia? That’s because there is a huge catalog of content in these countries that is virtually unknown in the US.
Netflix can select materials based on local popularity. (Hey, aren’t we all just the same at heart?) Then they buy the rights for close to nothing. However, you still need English-speaking voice actors, since Americans hate reading sub-titles. AI translation is already pretty good. Dubbing, however, means you must also match the movement of the actor’s mouth and expressions. As you saw with the Morgan Freeman example. AIs are almost there!
So, Hollywood writers and actors are justifiably nervous. What will come as a huge surprise to Hollywood is that the “suits” should be even more worried than the “talent”. Today, the process of choosing foreign content to dub or redevelop into English-based content is handled by highly paid individuals. However, an AI can. or will soon be able to, more accurately identify the right content and quantify its potential for domestic market penetration and the resulting profit. Hollywood “suits” are about to be an endangered species. Strange… I don’t hear any wailing or weeping from my readers.
However, independent movie creators (or wannabe creators) are often the writer, director, actor, and post-production department. Ever since the earliest days of videotape, these creators have been able to take on more roles and produce more independent content for less. Taking advantage of the latest technology, the first Halloween movie cost just $300,000 in 1978, and spawned six decades of movies and sequels. In 1994, the Kevin Smith film “Clerks” cost less than $30,000, but generated over $4 million, while the 2004 film “Open Water” cost only $120,000 and made $55 million.
AIs WILL be able to will be able to do more of the work traditionally performed by Hollywood workers. If this drives down the cost of independent films, and possibly improves the quality of indie movies. Independents will love it, but union members will hate it. However, if these creators only need to scrape together a few thousand dollars, instead of hundreds of thousands of dollars, a lot more movies could be created… even if it doesn’t create new jobs. For those of us who are mere consumers of content, is the AI revolution a good thing or a bad thing?
Good or bad, the rise of new technology is inevitable. In the early 80s the first 4-track tapes system arrived. Artists could build a music studios for a fraction of the cost of old-tech studios. Of course, poor but creative artists soon learned how to “sample” beloved musical snippets from previous geneations of artists, and incorporate it into new works. The original artists, however, thought that this was less a “tribute” to their art than outright theft of copyrighted materials. Tributes are nice… royalties are niceer.
AI’s integration into Hollywood culture could hurt writers, actors, and other talent. But it could also help independents and others who work outside of the mainstream of Hollywood. And, more content, whoever makes that content, might benefit all consumers.
What do you think? Do you think that the growing role of AI in Hollywood is a good thing? Everyone would like t oknow what you think… assuming that YOU are not an AI.
The barely visible remnants of the LUNA 25 space probe… and of Russia’s hope for a space industry.
When Putin invaded Ukraine in 2014, he got what he wanted Little has gone the way that Putin wanted since his invasion of Ukraine, at little personal cost. Inside Russia, Putin gained even more power. By the time world leaders figured out how they would respond, Russian troops were already on their way back home. There would be sanctions and financial repercussions, but that was all in the future. Putin was, at least for a time, a happy man.
The sequel invasion in 2022 was not the successful sequel that Putin (and Russia) expected. Since the new invasion of Ukraine, it’s been nothing but bad news for Russia. Front Page bad news. A lot of what we’re seeing is not due to events in August, rather August events are a result of things that happened over the last couple of years… or longer. These predictable events point the way to a HUGE problem for Putin in September. Let’s dive right in!
The War in Ukraine has been Putin’s Groundhog Day. The same bad news over and over again. Unacceptable loss of tanks and other vehicles… all publically blown up (with videos on the internet). There are even collaboration sites to crowdsource verification of destroyed Russian tanks and to identify faked Russian claims of victory.
The Russian Air Force is afraid to patrol the air space over Ukraine due to a legitimate fear of being blown out of the air by American and European missile defenses. Pilots are happy to stay safely inside Russian airspace, and military leaders have made protecting pilots their highest priority. Mind you, this is not because Russian generals care for their pilots. Rather, generals who lose aircraft are quickly removed… from the battlefield or from life itself. Order to military leaders seems to be that it’s OK for troops to die… tens of thousands of Russian soldiers are dead or have deserted… they just need to do it quietly. And far away from any cameras.
Russia’s sizable military budget seems to have produced very little in the decade since the last invasion of Ukraine. Russia has put obsolete, broken, and incomplete equipment into the field. There are rumors and evidence that Putin has offset a decade of sanctions with escalating internal corruption, Essentially, it if wasn’t nailed down, Putin’s elite circle already stole it. If it was nailed down, Russian elites have been grabbing crowbars to pry it loose and sell it.
How bad it is in Russia? They are running out of weapons and ammo. Russia is relying on drones from Iran and Turkey to replace their missiles. These are nations that once depended on Russia for the weapons they used for their own defense. This is a very, very humiliating time for Putin. And it puts out a terrible message about the world’s #2 weapons dealer. OK. I take back what I said. If Russia had any crowbars left, they were stolen a long time ago.
And then there’s Yevgeny Prigozhin, who died in a tragic airline accident. Coincidentally, he was traveling with other heads of the Wagner Group. Remember the Wagner group? The one that rebelled against Putin? With the elimination of the Wagner Group, the rest of the Russian Military gained power. But without the Wagner Group, Putin loses Russia’s most effective terror weapons and his most experienced troops. If the remaining Russian military leaders do not suddenly become more effective, they too may get a first-class ticket on Putin Airlines.
This terrible August also marks the beginning of the end for Russia’s space industry. Once a close competitor of the US, Russia kept pace with and occasionally beat the US space program. After the second crash of the American space shuttle, even the mighty NASA flew astronauts on Russian rockets to the International Space Station. But in August, Russia’s first return to the moon in nearly 50 years, the LUNA-25 moon probe, went out of control and crashed.
Falling from the savior of NASA to an also-ran in space is indescribably humiliating for Russia and Putin. And yet, as inconceivable as it may sound, it gets even worse. Two days after Russia crashed its space probe, India’s bargain-basement Chandrayaan-3 lander, successfully landed on the moon. And then it deployed its lunar rover. Putin’s continuing humiliation was felt by every Russian.
Without access to Western technology, especially microchips, Russia’s space industry may never recover. Add to that an inevitable rise in the risk factor for using a Russian rocket; uninsurable rockets are not very desirable when you want to put a $100 million satellite into orbit. Of course, India will capitalize on the success of their moon landing with aggressive poaching of Russia’s client list.
What a terrible August. Can Russia hope for a better September? No, it can’t. In fact, the next major humiliation for Russia will take place in London, starting on September 12th. DSEI, Defence & Security Equipment International, is one of the world’s largest exhibitions of military weapons. It is where the world’s most advanced killing technology is exhibited and (hopefully) purchased.
With Russia’s recent performance on land, sea, air, and space… Russia can expect declining weapon sales in 2023. Russia is courting North Korea to get desperately needed ammunition. Are their customers watching this unfolding story? How can any potential customer believe that Russia will deliver on any new orders when Russia can’t even meet its own needs?
Winter will be here soon. While Ukraine may not be able to kick out Russia before cold weather sets in, there may be more ways to humiliate Putin than just military victories over Russia. If August is a good example, then Putin can expect even more bad news before the year is out! What do you think? Can Putin turn around the war in Ukraine? Or is Russia fated to fade away as an international power?
I am shocked and horrified at the Chinese weaponization of balloons, and their use against innocent Americans. But it was inevitable. With the growing influence of Chinese financial institutions, our political and business leaders should have predicted that American families would be dangerously vulnerable to inflated balloon payments on their home mortgages. While it is difficult to say why China chose this moment to inflict damage on the U.S., pundits will be quick to… what? Not balloon payments? An ACTUAL balloon? You’ve got to be s#!t!ng me.
Ah. Yeah. Right. Balloon warfare in the 21st Century. Somewhere in Washington, a group of highly paid experts is considering the dangers of balloon warfare and the perils of the “Balloon Gap” with China. I GUARANTEE that whatever solutions they find MUST include the development of a multi-billion dollar air-superiority balloon, with stealth. Yeah… it’s coming.
OK, let’s back on track. News stories have pointed out that balloons were used extensively in America’s Civil war, and were probably first used in the 1790s during the French Revolution. Two centuries ago. True, during WW II the Japanese did try floating balloon firebombs over the US. But they sent over 9,000 of these “Fu-Go” bombs. If it’s for spying or as a weapon, you need to use a LOT of balloons. Why? Because you can’t steer balloons; they get blown around by the wind. A bomb or a spy device usually needs to go somewhere specific. A lone balloon floating thousands of miles is very unlikely to find a specific target.
On the other hand, if you plan to use THOUSANDS of balloons, you’re guaranteed that at least a few will reach the right continent. Not exactly state-of-the-art spycraft. China has satellites, drones, and a ton of spies around the world. Why use a balloon? If China wants plain old aerial photography, Air China flies to New York, Washington, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Houston. I’ve never flown on an Air China flight, but just about every modern plane I’ve flown on for the last 10 years has cameras on the plane pointed forward and downward. Passengers can use their seat-back monitors to check out these cameras at any point in the flight. I’m sure that there’s some special office of Chinese Intelligence that combs over these images for anything important.
While I believe with all my heart that there is virtually nothing that China won’t do to spy on the U.S. And it was a REALLY BIG balloon. Still, America launches 800 weather balloons EVERY DAY. And other nations launch another 1,000 weather balloons daily. With hundreds of thousands of balloons floating in the skies, it is just barely possible that one Chinese weather balloon made it to the US. In fact, I suspect that many foreign weather balloons have landed (or fallen) in obscure places around the US. But if you’re spying, why make a super gigantic balloon that’s easier to spot?
Alternatively, the US and China are conspiring to hide a UFO invasion. Well, invasion by incredibly advanced aliens that build incredibly flimsy spacecraft. Perhaps this is evidence that even the most advanced civilizations use “lowest-bid” government contracts?
Of course, if some midwest farmer tells us, “Those floaty things? Why a dozen have been driving by every day for the last 10 years”, then it’s time the US builds its Global Balloon Defense System. It will give the U.S. Space Force something to do.
What do you think? Balloons are the most dangerous spy machines? The Chinese Communist Party is developing a sense of humor? It’s been a slow news day?
Niccolls AND Dimes 